Quarterly report pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d)

Warrant Liabilities (Tables)

v3.8.0.1
Warrant Liabilities (Tables)
6 Months Ended
Apr. 01, 2018
Warrant Liabilities  
Schedule of evaluated model input criteria

A summary table of the comparison is below.

 

Evaluated Model Input Criteria   Volatility     Lowest
Volatility
    Highest
Volatility
 
Optex common shares (OPXS) 3.4 year history from 11/7/2014     162.4 %                
Optex common shares (OPXS) trading history from 8/29/16 (1.6 years)     66.3 %                
Optex warrants (OPXXW) implied volatility based on 3/29/18 closing price(1)     65.1 %                
Similarly traded equities, 3.4 year history from 11/7/2014(2)     92.5 %     53.6 %     121.9 %

 

  (1) Implied volatility rate for OPXXW assuming Interest rate for U.S. Treasury Bonds of 2.39%, term of 3.4 years and OTC market closing price of $0.38 per warrant on 3/29/18.
  (2) The average 3.4 year historical volatility across the 5 similarly traded companies is 92.5%, the lowest volatility and the highest volatility is for a single company within the range of 5 similar traded companies.
Schedule of fair value of the warrant liabilities

The fair value of the warrant liabilities presented below were measured using either a Binomial (through October 1, 2017) or BSM (effective as of April 1, 2018) valuation model. Significant inputs into the respective model at the inception and reporting period measurement dates are as follows:

 

Binomial Assumptions   Issuance
date (1)August
26, 2016(4)
    Period ending
October 2,
2016(4)
    Period ending
October 1,
2017(4)
    Period
ending April
1, 2018(5)
 
Exercise Price(1)   $ 1.5     $ 1.5     $ 1.5     $ 1.5  
Warrant Expiration Date (1)     8/26/2021       8/26/2021       8/26/2021       8/26/2021  
Stock Price (2)   $ 0.95     $ 0.77     $ 0.98     $ 1.02  
Interest Rate (annual) (3)     1.23 %     1.14 %     1.62 %     2.39 %
Volatility (annual) (4)(5)     246.44 %     242.17 %     179.36 %     66.25 %
Time to Maturity (Years)     5       4.9       3.9       3.4  
Calculated fair value per share   $ 0.93     $ 0.76     $ 0.87     $ 0.38  

 

(1) Based on the terms provided in the warrant agreement to purchase common stock of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. dated August 26, 2016.

 

(2) Based on the trading value of common stock of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. as of August 26, 2016 and each presented period ending date.

 

(3) Interest rate for U.S. Treasury Bonds, as of August 26, 2016 and each presented period ending date, as published by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

 

(4) Based on the historical daily volatility of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. for the term of the warrants as of August 26, 2016 and each presented period ending date through January 1, 2017. The original fair value calculations were derived using the Binomial model, however, the yielded results were consistent with fair market valuation using the Black Scholes Merton Option Pricing model for each of the respective periods.

 

(5) Based on the historical daily volatility of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. from the consummation of the public raise on August 26, 2016 through the current presented measurement date. The company determined that the historical volatility prior to the August 26, 2016 public offering was not representative of the current market expectations due to the significant change in company capital structure and increase in public float shares (liquidity) arising from the common stock issued during the public offering and concurrent conversions of outstanding preferred shares into common stock. The fair value calculation was derived using the Black Scholes Merton Option Pricing model.

Schedule of warrants outstanding and fair values at each of the respective valuation dates

The warrants outstanding and fair values at each of the respective valuation dates are summarized below:

 

Warrant Liability   Warrants 
Outstanding
    Fair Value 
per Share
   

Fair Value

(000’s) 

 
Fair Value at initial measurement date of 8/26/2016     4,125,200     $ 0.93     $ 3,857  
(Gain) on Change in Fair Value of Warrant Liability                     (739 )
Fair Value as of period ending 10/2/2016     4,125,200     $ 0.76     $ 3,118  
Loss on Change in Fair Value of Warrant Liability                     489  
Fair Value as of period ending 10/01/2017     4,125,200     $ 0.87     $ 3,607  
(Gain) on Change in Fair Value of Warrant Liability                     (2,006 )
Fair Value as of period ending 04/01/2018     4,125,200     $ 0.38     $ 1,601